Daily Rate Lock Advisory

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Low

Unknown

Fed Talk

There is no relevant economic data set for release this morning. If we see an intraday move in rates during early morning or midday trading, it likely will be due to something said during one of today’s Fed-member speaking engagements. There are a few scheduled throughout the day, but none are expected to yield a major surprise that would cause a noticeable reaction in the markets.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

We do have an afternoon event that may affect mortgage rates. Results of today’s 20-year Treasury Bond auction will be announced at 1:00 PM ET. If they show a strong demand from investors, we could see bond gains and possibly a slight improvement to mortgage rates before the end of the day. However, a weak interest would indicate a waning appetite for longer-term debt. The latter is bad news because mortgage rates are based on long-term securities.

High

Unknown

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Tomorrow brings us two economic reports, both at 8:30 AM ET. One is much more important than the other since it tracks inflation at the consumer level of the economy. November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a 0.3% increase in both the monthly overall and core readings. The core data is considered more important because it excludes more volatile food and energy costs, leaving a more reliable dataset. November’s year-over-year readings are predicted to be at 3.1% and 3.0% respectively. Good news for bonds and mortgage rates will be weaker numbers that show inflation is softer than many had thought. Slowing inflation makes long-term debt more attractive to investors.

Medium

Unknown

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Also early tomorrow will be the release of last week’s unemployment figures. They are expected to show 225,000 new claims for jobless benefits were filed, down from the previous week’s 236,000 initial filings that surprised many in the markets when it was announced last week. Rising claims are a sign of weakness in the employment sector, so good news for rates would be an increase in new claims instead of a decline.

Rate Lock Advisory

Mortgage Rate Trend

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Fed Talk

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Float / Lock Recommendation