Rate Lock Advisory

Tuesday, October 6th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following another decline in oil prices that eases inflation concerns slightly. Stocks are rallying with the Dow up 335 points and the Nasdaq up 192 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32 (5.28%) to recover a good part of yesterday’s afternoon weakness. This should leave this morning’s mortgage rates close to Monday’s early pricing. If you saw an intraday increase late yesterday, you should see a similar improvement this morning.

4/32

Bonds

30 yr - 5.28%

335

Dow

51,602

192

NASDAQ

27,670

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Positive

Inflation News

There is nothing of relevance scheduled for release today. One oil price metric is down below a key threshold of $100 per barrel this morning, drawing a positive open in bonds since there is little else to influence trading. We are on alert for possible afternoon selling, which has been common lately. If the trend continues, we may see an afternoon increase in rates later today.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Tomorrow also lacks any economic data that needs to be watched. However, there are a couple of afternoon events tomorrow that may have an impact on rates. The first of this week’s two Treasury auctions occurs tomorrow with the sale of 10-year Notes. Results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, making this an early afternoon event for rates. A strong demand for the securities would be good news for mortgage rates because they are based on long-term debt also. On the other hand, if the auction draws a lackluster interest, we could see bond prices move lower, pushing yields and mortgage pricing higher tomorrow afternoon. This process will be repeated Thursday when 30-year Bonds are auctioned.

Medium

Unknown

FOMC Meeting Minutes

Also tomorrow afternoon is the 2:00 PM release of the minutes from last month's FOMC meeting. These may move the markets or could be a non-factor, depending on what they show. One key point traders are looking for is how many more rate hikes the Fed will make over the next few meetings, especially at the remaining two of this year. There was much debate about whether or not they will make another quarter-point hike at one of those meetings, but that was before recent favorable inflation news and a weaker than expected Employment report last Friday. It is worth noting though, the last FOMC meeting was followed by revised economic predictions and a press conference with Fed Chair Warsh. This means the likelihood of seeing a significant surprise in the minutes is relatively low.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Greg Goodrich

Loan Officer NMLS #398765
Company NMLS #849149


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